主讲：游庆龙
时间：2019年4月17日（周三）15:00-16:00
地点：物理楼北547
主持/联系：张 霖
摘要：
Mounting evidences suggest that the rate of warming in high mountains is higher than that in lower elevation regions, a phenomenon referred to as elevation dependency warming (EDW). In this study, future changes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from CMIP5 models are analyzed using a midrange/high emission scenario (RCP4.5/8.5) in which the global surface temperature has risen by 1.5 °C and 2°C relative to the pre-industrial period. The multi-model ensemble mean of 21 CMIP5 models indicates that the TP has rapidly warmed to a larger degree than the global mean and the whole China. Furthermore, a robust EDW over the TP is found to intensify under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C, which is probably contributed by the snow/ice-albedo feedback in the elevation range between 3.5 km and 4 km over the TP. The EDW over the TP raises more robust under global warming of 2°C than 1.5°C. This study suggests that the TP is being influenced by global warming approximately 10 years earlier than the global scale under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C, and EDW under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will have potentially serious consequences for the Third pole environment.
