主讲：Lu Shen (沈路)
I will talk about two case studies about the relationship of air quality with large-scale climate patterns. For the summertime ozone in the eastern United States, we find that it is closely linked to large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions involving patterns of sea level pressure and Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Using these large-scale climate patterns, we build a linear regression model that can predict ~45% of the variability in summertime maximum daily 8-hour average ozone one season in advance. For the haze pollution in Beijing, our results show that future shrinking of Arctic sea ice may not worsen Beijing haze because of competing effects of changes in SSTs, multi-decadal shifts in the relationships of haze pollution with SST and sea ice, and dipole sensitivity to changes in sea ice. Future 21st-century trends of haze pollution computed from the CMIP5 ensemble of climate models are inconsistent in sign and overall small, suggesting inconsequential effects of climate change on Beijing haze.